Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
